You are right, replays won't address this issue, at least not directly....but the changes you are proposing will address the issue in a way that kind of goes around the problem and, more likely than not, will introduce new problems into the mix. I mean, I don't know how much fun it is to best someone who is better than you when their hand is tied behind their back.
So I have noticed that most of my favorite strategy games like Company of Heroes and Sup Com/FA had a great many players in ranked who persisted in playing rank despite having atrocious win:loss ratios. I have also noticed quite a few Ashes players with a Win:loss records like 5:82. It's funny to me because they have played vastly more games than I have, and, If I had racked up nearly as many losses, I would have stopped playing the game ages ago. I know what I am saying is just an anecdote, but I am quite sure there is a significant portion of the ranked community that bashes it's head against a wall and shows no sign of stopping! Yes, this is a problem, but I don't think the problem is that people are going to jump ship; I think the problem is that they are boring to fight against, and that their gaming habit is more like a masochist addiction than an actual activity that shows sign of progress. Not to say that having a negative W:L record means you are terrible or anything; I do think the game could teach you it's mechanics far better than it currently does.
I think one of the problems here is that while most players can learn eco, build order, and what counter what, many will never learn the psychology that goes along with rts players. This, as far as I can tell, is not a problem that is limited to Ashes: it's endemic to all good rts games, and to games not made by blizzard who likes to make their fanbase feel maybe a little too good.